Russia lacks the resources to attack NATO this year or next but is planning a significant buildup of its forces along the alliance’s eastern borders, according to Estonia’s foreign intelligence chief.

Kaupo Rosin said Moscow intends to create new military units and expand its prewar troop presence near NATO by as much as two to three times, depending on how the war in Ukraine and ongoing peace talks evolve. He said Russia currently needs to keep a large portion of its military tied down in occupied Ukrainian territory and inside Russia to deter future Ukrainian operations.

Speaking ahead of Estonia’s annual security assessment, Rosin said President Vladimir Putin has no real interest in ending the war in Ukraine and still believes he can win militarily while “outsmarting” the United States in negotiations.

While Russian officials publicly say they want a negotiated settlement, Rosin said intelligence from internal Kremlin discussions shows Moscow is largely stalling talks with Washington and continues to view the U.S. as its main adversary.

Rosin added that although Russia cannot attack NATO in the near term, the Kremlin is increasingly worried about Europe rearming and gaining the capacity to challenge Russia militarily within the next few years.

The warning comes as U.S.-brokered talks between Russia and Ukraine have produced limited results, including prisoner exchanges, but no breakthrough on ending the conflict. Despite U.S. claims of progress, Rosin said Putin remains fixated on controlling Ukraine and is likely to continue the war unless conditions inside Russia or on the battlefield become catastrophic for his leadership.

Source: APNews